Yesterday, I published a new Statistical PERT template for Annual Planning. This is the fifth SPERT template in the Statistical PERT family. What makes this template different from the others?
With each Statistical PERT template, the same SPERT technique is used: enter a 3-point estimate, render a subjective opinion about how likely the most likely outcome really is, and choose a SPERT estimate that best fits your circumstances and willingness to accept risk.
But the goal for revenue is to hope for a maximum result while guarding against a minimum result. That’s different from an expenses goal of hoping for a minimum result while guarding against a maximum result. The two goals are, in a sense, opposites of each other — but both goals can utilize SPERT. They just do that a little differently, which is why there is a SPERT template for revenue forecasting, and another SPERT template for expense forecasting.
With the new annual planning template, the goal is to forecast how much a portfolio of projects may cost. To do that, an estimator has to first estimate how many projects are part of the portfolio, and secondly, the estimator has to estimate how costly each project in the portfolio might be. Once that work is done, the estimator can use the new Statistical PERT template for annual planning to find a confidence interval for the entire portfolio.
Why do that?
By finding the probabilistic cost of the entire project portfolio, managers can make budgetary plans for securing the necessary funds to fully fund each project in the portfolio in such a way that all projects can be completed without running out of funds, and without over-budgeting, either.
My next few blog posts will discuss this in idea in greater detail. For now, download Statistical PERT for Annual Planning and examine how a portfolio of projects can be estimated with ease and confidence