Monthly Archives: July 2016

New Statistical PERT Website Launched!

Yesterday, I launched the new Statistical PERT website which uses a WordPress theme.  It’s all the essential information as before, but now it looks better and, importantly, has a responsive design so if you access the website using a mobile device, the site conforms to a small screen (no zooming in just to read a webpage!).

I’m excited about this new look for the site.  It still has some tweaks that need to be made so it looks good on all browsers, but this is an important step that precedes my presentation of Statistical PERT in September at the 2016 PMI North America Global Congress.

I also created a new, four-page, full-color brochure:  Why Use Statistical PERT?  which explains why probabilistic (or, stochastic) estimation is preferable over deterministic estimation.


Statistical PERT for Fantasy Football!

I’m a football fan, but I am not a fantasy football fan; I don’t have enough time in the day to follow individual player stats and participate in a fantasy football league.

But I do have family members who are into fantasy football.  They’re about to start drafting players next month in preparation for the 2016 NFL football season.

As I talked with my nephew, I saw an application for Statistical PERT for fantasy football fans.  While one nephew-in-law goes crazy with player data and projections for how many passing yards each quarterback might throw in a game, another nephew works more simply.  For him, he just projects how many fantasy football points each player may score on week-to-week basis.

Player performance can be thought of as a bell-shaped uncertainty.  Sometimes they have stellar games, sometimes they play dismally, and often they just play their expected average (which, for these players, is well above average among their peers).

To help my nephews pick players to put into the game, I created an adaptation of Statistical PERT which can be used to select the player that will give them the least amount of regret among the whole range of possible player performance.

For this special edition of Statistical PERT — which won’t be available on the main website — you enter a 3-point estimate for each player option, a subjective opinion about the most likely performance for the next week’s match-up, and let Statistical PERT compare player performance across the whole bell curve, calculating the player who will give the fantasy team manager the least regret; this is the player that, on paper, has the best chance of scoring the most points for the fantasy football team.

Have a look by downloading the Statistical PERT worksheet for Fantasy Football!  Like all SPERT Excel templates, this is freely licensed.

New Website Coming Soon

So it’s been a long time since I last posted a blog entry on this site!

I’m getting ready to present Statistical PERT at the 2016 PMI North America Global Congress this September.  I’ll be launching a new look for the Statistical PERT website in the next few weeks, which I’m really excited about.  And I’ll be adding some fresh blog posts to this site in preparation for PMI’s biggest conference of the year.

If you’re planning on attending the PMI Global Congress in San Diego this fall, be sure to check out my presentation!