I’m a football fan, but I am not a fantasy football fan; I don’t have enough time in the day to follow individual player stats and participate in a fantasy football league.
But I do have family members who are into fantasy football. They’re about to start drafting players next month in preparation for the 2016 NFL football season.
As I talked with my nephew, I saw an application for Statistical PERT for fantasy football fans. While one nephew-in-law goes crazy with player data and projections for how many passing yards each quarterback might throw in a game, another nephew works more simply. For him, he just projects how many fantasy football points each player may score on week-to-week basis.
Player performance can be thought of as a bell-shaped uncertainty. Sometimes they have stellar games, sometimes they play dismally, and often they just play their expected average (which, for these players, is well above average among their peers).
To help my nephews pick players to put into the game, I created an adaptation of Statistical PERT which can be used to select the player that will give them the least amount of regret among the whole range of possible player performance.
For this special edition of Statistical PERT — which won’t be available on the main website — you enter a 3-point estimate for each player option, a subjective opinion about the most likely performance for the next week’s match-up, and let Statistical PERT compare player performance across the whole bell curve, calculating the player who will give the fantasy team manager the least regret; this is the player that, on paper, has the best chance of scoring the most points for the fantasy football team.
Have a look by downloading the Statistical PERT worksheet for Fantasy Football! Like all SPERT Excel templates, this is freely licensed.