The folks at ProjectManagement.com have kindly published an article I wrote for them on soothsaying your risk register. PMI’s theme this month (August 2016) is on Risk. You can learn more about risk soothsaying by reading the article (note: you have to be a PMI member to read articles on ProjectManagement.com).
I’ll begin explaining some details about risk soothsaying on this blog, but for now, you can get a quick overview of what soothsaying your risk register is all about just by heading over to ProjectManagement.com.
To be clear, soothsaying in this context has nothing to do with spiritism or divination or witchcraft or anything spooky. Rather, it has to do with using the binomial probability distribution and Microsoft Excel functions. Just so you know.
I’d like to announce a new, free, Excel template: Soothersayer™ for Project Risk Analysis. This Excel template uses the binomial distribution to estimate the risk impact of identified and assessed risks in the risk register. This template can be used to analyze both schedule and budget impacts. It’s intended to let project managers calculate the size of the project risk contingency needed to ensure project success.
Like all of the Statistical PERT templates, this template is freely licensed under the GNU GPL published by the Free Software Foundation. Although this isn’t a “Statistical PERT” template, it falls into the same camp of Excel-based templates that are freely available and use the built-in statistical functions of Microsoft Excel 2010 / 2013 / 2016.
I’ll have a LOT more to say about Soothsayer in future blog posts. For now, download it and try it out! It’s simple and intuitive to use.