How Probable Are Your “Most Likely” Estimates?

Are you using “most likely” estimates in your project schedule?  If so, how likely are your “most likely” estimates?

This week, ProjectManagement.com published an article I wrote that shares the story of a PMO director who was frustrated with the late delivery of his projects.  Although his teams created “most likely” estimates that they asserted could be accomplished with 90% certainty, the reality was that most of the time, their “most likely” outcomes were too optimistic.

Learn how one PMO director used Statistical PERT Beta Edition to model schedule uncertainty, and see the difference between a “most likely” outcome and a “highly probable” outcome.

https://www.projectmanagement.com/articles/370549/Getting-Beta-with-Statistical-PERT

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *