Tag Archives: SPERT for fantasy football

Statistical PERT for Fantasy Football!

This summer, I was in Chicago visiting family and talking with my nephew about fantasy football.  The whole Chicagoland family is really into fantasy football; I’m not.  I watch NFL games on TiVo, skipping commercials and past any game that looks like it’s non-competitive.

As I talked with my nephew about how he picks players from his team roster to put into the upcoming game, I realized there was an application for Statistical PERT even with fantasy football!

Essentially, my nephew explained that he has several players from which to choose to put into a game for one game position, like, who will be his team quarterback.  He has two or more to choose from on his team.  He faces the same choices with other player-positions, too.

The question is, which player on his fantasy team will perform best, given each player’s health, and the real-game opponents each player faces?

This uncertainty can be modeled using a regret table in statistics.  Using a regret table helps you make a reasonable, probabilistic choice that will give you the least regret among all the choices you have.

With this special adaption of Statistical PERT, I’ve added a regret table to the example workbook.  The regret table is conditionally formatted so it highlights which player will give you the best point performance at a variety of probabilistic points.  The player who will give you the least regret across many possible outcomes is the player you would put into the game.  That player will give you the least regret, statistically speaking.

So, you enter each player for a given position, model what you think each player is capable of for the upcoming weekend games, and let the SPERT worksheet show you which player will give you the least regret across many uncertain possibilities.

Notably, in testing this special Fantasy Football version, I didn’t find that using the subjective opinion about the mode changes anything; irrespective of how you subjectively feel about the most likely outcome, the spreadsheet will continue to choose the same player (or players, if there’s a tie) as the player/s that will give you the least regret.

We have a new tagline for anyone using this special version to help you pick your fantasy football players for next week’s game:  “Lose With Less Regret.”   🙂

Here’s the download!

Statistical PERT for Fantasy Football!

I’m a football fan, but I am not a fantasy football fan; I don’t have enough time in the day to follow individual player stats and participate in a fantasy football league.

But I do have family members who are into fantasy football.  They’re about to start drafting players next month in preparation for the 2016 NFL football season.

As I talked with my nephew, I saw an application for Statistical PERT for fantasy football fans.  While one nephew-in-law goes crazy with player data and projections for how many passing yards each quarterback might throw in a game, another nephew works more simply.  For him, he just projects how many fantasy football points each player may score on week-to-week basis.

Player performance can be thought of as a bell-shaped uncertainty.  Sometimes they have stellar games, sometimes they play dismally, and often they just play their expected average (which, for these players, is well above average among their peers).

To help my nephews pick players to put into the game, I created an adaptation of Statistical PERT which can be used to select the player that will give them the least amount of regret among the whole range of possible player performance.

For this special edition of Statistical PERT — which won’t be available on the main website — you enter a 3-point estimate for each player option, a subjective opinion about the most likely performance for the next week’s match-up, and let Statistical PERT compare player performance across the whole bell curve, calculating the player who will give the fantasy team manager the least regret; this is the player that, on paper, has the best chance of scoring the most points for the fantasy football team.

Have a look by downloading the Statistical PERT worksheet for Fantasy Football!  Like all SPERT Excel templates, this is freely licensed.